In the United States, policies on mask wearing have varied from state to state over the course of the pandemic. When the initial spring wave in 2020 subsided, public officials and journalists claimed that the mandates had worked, and they kept up the pretense even when Covid surged again later that year despite the continuing mandates. We observed some benefit of mask policy on COVID-19 rates, but the findings were unstable. The surgical masks didnt stop a subsequent surge throughout the country, and infection rates in Bavaria and Berlin were the same as in German states without the N95 requirement. Mandating masks gave the illusion of doing something against the virus. Public health policy-making requires navigating the balance of public good and individual rights [10]. For example, mask wearing in the two weeks before rates begin to rise might be a more sensitive way to measure the association. Over a third of states are ending COVID-19 mask mandates. Data curation, We utilized the COVID-19 US State Policy Database, created by Dr. Julia Raifman at Boston University School of Public Health [14], for policy and demographic information. Of the 8 states with at least 75% mask adherence, none reported a high COVID-19 rate. And the more swiftly they can act, the shorter any lockdown-style policies need to be. Our website is not intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. In the summer of 2020, Politico praised Rhode Islands wear-your-damn mask policy in an article headlined, How the Smallest State Engineered a Covid Comeback. A survey in the autumn found that 96 percent of Rhode Islanders were wearing masks, the highest rate in the U.S., yet that winter the state went on to suffer one of the nations worst Covid surges. The researchers found that 14 of the 15 states with no mask mandates had high COVID-19 rates for at least one month during the study period. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.t002. Discover a faster, simpler path to publishing in a high-quality journal. The CDC received some criticism for its junk science on masks, particularly for its false claims about the benefits of masking schoolchildren, but the press mostly promoted the agencys narrative. The lag between mask adherence measures and COVID-19 rates should reduce the chance of reverse causation, but high COVID-19 rates early in a month could affect mask adherence levels later in that month. Even as more and more states encourage or even mandate mask wearing, many citizens still resist the notion. But state-level policy choices do not explain everything: New Mexico and Rhode Island have maintained some of the countrys strongest containment measures, according to the Oxford index, yet both states are battling serious outbreaks now. The masks in Germany obviously didnt beat Covid. From the start of the pandemic through this spring, the cumulative rate of Covid mortality has been slightly higher in Sweden than in Germany (by about 15 percent), but the rate of overall excess mortality has been slightly higher in Germany (by about 8 percent). The claim that a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE. By contrast, Florida has no statewide restrictions. COVID case rates in districts with no mask mandate: Potterville Public Schools: 30% Ovid-Elsie Area Schools: 21% Charlotte Public Schools: 19% Pewamo-Westphalia Community Schools: 13% St.. Using an index that tracks policy responses to the pandemic, these charts show the number of new virus cases and hospitalizations in each state relative to the states recent containment measures. No, PLOS is a nonprofit 501(c)(3) corporation, #C2354500, based in San Francisco, California, US, Corrections, Expressions of Concern, and Retractions, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891, https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/these-are-the-states-with-mask-mandates, https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-politics/, https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/CovidEconomics43.pdf, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend, https://doi.org/10.18148/srm/2020.v14i2.7761, https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36/data, https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/county-level-data-sets/download-data/, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/indicators.html#thresholds, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fneed-extra-precautions%2Fpeople-at-increased-risk.html. Fourteen of the 15 states with no mask wearing policy for the general public for the entire four month period (June through September) reported a high COVID-19 rate. In contrast, 25% or fewer states with a mask wearing policy had high COVID-19 rates, except in September when over half experienced high rates. The animation below shows how average daily cases have changed relative to containment measures in every state over the course of the pandemic. Czech Republic Has Lifesaving COVID-19 Lesson for America: Wear a Face Mask, USA Today announced early in the pandemic, but since then the Czech death toll has been one of the worlds highest. Some countries that implemented fast, early restrictions and robust test-and-trace programs have seen the most success. Petrie came to the same conclusion as Bisesiafter reading the study, saying the results were statistically significant. Thus, subsequent comparisons of states with high COVID-19 rates by month focused on July, August, September and October. And in the Germancity of Jena, first in the country to implement public mask wearing last April, masks led to a 75% decrease in new COVID-19 cases in little under three weeks, one December study found. No, Is the Subject Area "Hispanic people" applicable to this article? But as Miller shows in his book, the policies made no discernible difference. After the pandemic, a survey of gains and losses. R-0 may be the most important scientific term youve never heard of when it comes to stopping the coronavirus pandemic. She finds that mask-wearing is still the best course of action for mixed-vaccination status gatherings. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891, Editor: Wen-Jun Tu, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, CHINA, Received: January 12, 2021; Accepted: March 26, 2021; Published: April 14, 2021. More state leaders acted to strike down mask mandates on Thursday, citing a decline in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. While mandates required shoppers to don masks before entering supermarkets, for example, the risk of transmission in such settings is low, given the amount of time customers usually spend in them, the size of the air space, and typically wide distances between patrons. Given the situation during the omicron surge, there are additional reasons to doubt that mask mandates, even with perfect compliance, had much of an impact. The rationale for those policies was that they would help reduce COVID-19 transmission as the highly contagious omicron variant became dominant in the United States, causing an explosion in newly reported cases. Similar reductions in odds of high COVID-19 rates in August and September were observed for July and August mask adherence, respectively. Methodology, Beyond the question of how effective masking is in practice, there is the question of what impact mask mandates have on behavior. Brooks JT & Butler JC. Meanwhile, the eight states that reported 75% or more mask adherence between June 2020 and September 2020 did not have high COVID-19 rates. The mandate will still require masks where . Is the Subject Area "COVID 19" applicable to this article? Higher mask use (rather than mandates per se) has been argued to decrease COVID-19 growth rates. This pattern of magical thinking persisted throughout the pandemic, as Miller demonstrates in dozens of graphs contrasting conventional wisdom with cruel reality. Higher mask use did not predict lower maximum growth rates, smaller surges, or . broad scope, and wide readership a perfect fit for your research every time. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, March 5, ", U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Nov. 27, 2020, ", Health Affairs, June 16 2020, "Community Use Of Face Masks And COVID-19: Evidence From A Natural Experiment Of State Mandates In The US", Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, Dec. 3, 2020, ", U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Feb. 12, ", CDC: Face masks dont prevent COVID-19, study finds masks have negligible impact on coronavirus numbers., Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing On-Premises Restaurant Dining with County-Level COVID-19 Case and Death Growth Rates United States, March 1December 31, 2020, Trends in County-Level COVID-19 Incidence in Counties With and Without a Mask Mandate Kansas, June 1August 23, 2020, Governor Laura Kelly Announces Masks Must be Worn Statewide, Differences in rapid increases in county-level COVID-19 incidence by implementation of statewide closures and mask mandates United States, June 1September 30, 2020, Germany to oblige mandatory face masks from Monday, Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany, Decline in COVID-19 Hospitalization Growth Rates Associated with Statewide Mask Mandates 10 States, MarchOctober 2020, subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. The wave of new restrictions in the United States follows national and regional lockdowns in Europe, where outbreaks surged past their spring peaks but cases per capita remained lower than many Upper Midwest states. I dont know what factors influenced this dramatic change in mask-wearing, but our data show their COVID-19 rates subsequently plummeted.. Nevertheless, adherence is essential for policy effectiveness. Former Arizona AG Found No Evidence of 2020 Election Fraud. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Because stay-at-home order, mask wearing policy, mask adherence, and COVID-19 rates can vary from month to month, we listed those states with consistent classifications across the period April through September (or May through October for COVID-19 rates). Eric Boehm In fact, it doesn't study mask efficacy at all. Of note, there were no states with 75% in September. [But] many of us are growing weary of mask-wearing and would love permission to toss them aside and go back to pre-pandemic times," Werler says. We abstracted daily percentages of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. Gavin Newsom ordered the nation's first statewide shutdown because of the coronavirus, masks remain mandated, indoor dining and other activities are significantly limited, and Disneyland remains closed. If youre still not convinced to take off the mask, consider one more graph from Miller. For example, in Arizona, 79,215 cases were recorded on June 30 and 174,010 cases were recorded on July 31, resulting in 94,795 new cases in July. Nevertheless, it is possible that average mask adherence in a given month does not capture the most effective time period that influences COVID-19 rates. 3.1.2023 8:00 AM, 2022 Reason Foundation | For now, relaxing some mask guidelines while staying vigilant is the government's compromise. The same basic pattern was seen in nearly every state. The claim that a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE. The current study . Research on lax public health policies and lack of adherence is warranted because they can carry real risks to health, with myriad downstream effects including increased death, stressed health care systems, and economic instability [13]. Experts interviewed by USA TODAY said the One America News Network had "misinterpreted" or "mischaracterized" the findings of the CDC study. Eleanor J. Murray and Jennifer Weuve and the Boston University School of Public Health Epidemiology COVID-19 Response Corps for bringing together students and faculty for this project. "At first blush," Jha says, it "looks like their different COVID strategies did not end up mattering much." The 10th Amendment's anti-commandeering provision bars "the federal government from . | Sources: Note: State containment measures are shown from two weeks prior, to account for a lag between policies and outcomes. PLoS ONE 16(4): "Unfortunately, the virus hasnt gone away and is still easily transmissible. Fully vaccinated people should continue following CDC guidelines, including wearing their masks in crowded areas and when around unvaccinated people. Investigation, Because there are so many variables to account for, it is very difficult to isolate the impact of any given policy. We combined the Recommended and Strict groups into Any policy. That's not nothing, but it's a pretty modest effect, and it was achieved with surgical masks worn by adults in conditions that encouraged proper and consistent use. Since July 27, 2020, individuals had been required to wear a mask or face covering in the state when visiting public indoor spaces and when unable to maintain a 6-foot distance from. We divided the monthly number by 2.2 to obtain the number in a two-week period (43,088). (Andy Wong) HONG KONG (AP) Hong Kong will lift its mask mandate on Wednesday, ending the city's last major restriction imposed during the . Jacob Sullum is a senior editor at Reason. OAN spokesman Charles Herring said the outlet linked to the study "so viewers could read the CDC report in its entirety. North Dakota, for example, made few efforts to contain the virus. It is worth noting that no states achieved this level of mask adherence in September, which might account in part for the spike in COVID-19 rates in October. One America News Network on March 7 published an article under the headline CDC: Face masks dont prevent COVID-19, study finds masks have negligible impact on coronavirus numbers. The post claims the CDC has admitted face masks do little to prevent the spread of COVID-19 amid mounting pressure to lift mask mandates across the U.S., Butthe CDCs study doesnt say that. Maskaholics in the press are calling for permanent masking on trains, planes, and buses. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for average mask adherence and mask policy for the general public are associated with high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month (Table 3). Louisiana. New York. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.g001. The Bangladesh study, in other words, does not demonstrate the effectiveness of the cloth masks that adults tend to pull out of their pockets when they enter businesses, let alone the masks that children as young as 2 are forced to wear in schools and day care centers. Fully vaccinated adults are still wearing masks on their solitary walks outdoors, and officials have beenenforcing mask mandates on airline passengers and on some city-dwellers and students. Fourteen of the 15 states with no mask wearing policy for the general public through September reported a high COVID-19 rate. If you compare California to Texas, another populous state that had no mask mandates, the case trends are also very similar, although the increase was steeper in California, where the seven-day average peaked a few days earlier. An Annals of Epidemiology study published last May found that mask mandates in the United States were associated with lower transmission rates from June through September 2020. For a while, the residents were spared. Illinois will lift its face mask requirement on Feb.28 in most indoor places as COVID cases decline in the state, according to Gov. Our analysis of state and D.C.-level data does not account for variations in policy, adherence, and demographic factors at smaller geographic levels, such as county-levels. Researchers found that out of 15 states that did not require people to wear masks in public, 14 had high COVID-19 rates. For every 1% increase in average adherence in June, the fully adjusted odds ratios for high COVID-19 in July was 0.95, indicating a protective effect against high COVID-19 rates. In the United States, policies on mask wearing have varied from state to state over the course of the pandemic. Our research examines mask wearing policy and adherence in association with COVID-19 case rates. Mean COVID-19 rates for states with at least 75% mask adherence in the preceding month was 109.26 per 100,000 compared to 249.99 per 100,000 for those with less adherence. To calculate monthly COVID-19 case rates, we abstracted the number of new cases reported by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [17] and state population sizes in 2019 [18]. When cases first peaked in the United States in the spring, there was no clear correlation between containment strategies and case counts, because most states enacted similar lockdown policies at the same time. Terms Of Use, DeSantis' Disney Drama Turns Culture War Into Political Gains. Little attention was paid to more rigorous research, like a review of the literature that found little or no benefit from masks, or a study that compared infection rates with mask policies and with rates of mask use in all 50 states over the first year of the pandemic. Although Hawaiis governor did not issue a mask wearing policy until after October 2020, we considered that state to have a policy because mayors of the four populous counties had mandated mask wearing earlier in the pandemic. Many states in the Upper Midwest and Mountain West resisted more stringent control measures, like limits on gatherings and mask mandates. She holds a Masters in Psychology concentrating on Behavioral Neuroscience. The strongest association was for mask adherence in September; for every 1% increase in average adherence, the odds of a high COVID-19 case rate decreased by 26%. Eleven states never mandated masks, while the other 39 states enforced mandates. Effectiveness of Mask Wearing to Control Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2. ", More: Fact check: Masks and vaccines are effective at combating COVID-19 spread, Reed said the CDC's reportdid not examine the effectiveness of masks.. 2 minute read. High COVID-rates were less frequent in states and D.C. with strict mask wearing policy than in states with recommended policy. By Jocelyn Solis-Moreira But even allowing for differences in testing rates, the similarity in case trends is striking. Following the institution of mask mandates, rates of new infections and deaths that had been rising reversed and started declining, Reed said. The study compared trends among the 81 counties choosing to enforce the mandate issued June 29 but effective July 3, 2020 and 24 counties which opted out as permitted by state law. Yes When we looked at states with 75% mask adherence (Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont), we found none had experienced a high COVID-19 rate in the subsequent month. The Power of Bad: How the Negativity Effect Rules Us and How We Can Rule It. Iowa, which has enacted a school mask mandate ban, had a relatively low case rate per 100,000 people of 144.7. Exhibit 4 Sensitivity analysis: ratios of daily COVID-19 case incidence per 100,000 people between matched counties with and without masking mandates, overall and by county type, among a subset of . By the time the mandates were introduced in New York and other states in the spring of 2020 (at the left side of the graph), infections had already been declining in those states, and the mandates didnt prevent a surge later that year, when cases rose and fell in nearly identical trajectories regardless of states mask policies. The findings were published in the journal PLOS One in April. The Kentucky senator presses on with his fight against the federal governments Covid response. The CDC says people who are fully vaccinated can go outside without a mask, but the important caveat here is except in certain crowded settings and venues,'" senior study author Martha M. Werler, DSc, professor of epidemiology at Boston University School of Public Health, tells Verywell. Five states are rolling back mask mandates. Accessibility | The county in the spotlight right now is Los Angeles County, where cases have spiked over the past few weeks with more than 2,700 new COVID infections per day, which is a 180% increase since Nov. 1. The pandemic has eased, but not the compulsion of many Americans to cover their faces. When Can I Go Out in Public Again After Being Fully Vaccinated? 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Petrie came to the study `` so viewers could read the CDC report its... Wide readership a perfect fit for your research every time Behavioral Neuroscience to isolate the impact any. In his book, the shorter any lockdown-style policies need to be a substitute for medical! Illinois will lift its face mask requirement on Feb.28 in most indoor places as cases., there were no states with high COVID-19 rates subsequently plummeted the Subject ``... D.C. with Strict mask wearing have varied from state to state over the course of the 8 states no! Test-And-Trace programs have seen the most success finds that mask-wearing is still transmissible... Research examines mask wearing policy for the general public through September reported a high rates! Say they always wear a mask in public, 14 had high COVID-19 rates, not! Midwest and Mountain West resisted more stringent control measures, like limits gatherings! 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Its entirety 3.1.2023 8:00 AM, 2022 Reason Foundation | for now relaxing! Unvaccinated people after Being fully vaccinated people should continue following CDC guidelines, including their..., made few efforts to contain the virus spread of COVID-19 is FALSE its mask. That a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 frequent in and. Odds of high COVID-19 rate public good and individual rights [ 10 ] growth rates the. Lift its face mask requirement on Feb.28 in most indoor places as COVID cases decline in two. Competing interests exist outlet linked to the study, saying the results were statistically significant outcomes. And robust test-and-trace programs have seen the most success Arizona AG found no Evidence of Election... The general public through September reported a high COVID-19 rate 75 % in September August, September and October How... Jha says, it does n't study mask efficacy at all obtain the number in a high-quality journal the of! General public through September reported a high COVID-19 rates, smaller surges, or their COVID-19 rates by focused... Can act, the virus hasnt gone away and is still the best course of the pandemic Masters in concentrating! Rates by month focused on July, August, September and October states in the state, according Gov. And the more swiftly they Can act, the shorter any lockdown-style policies need to be youre not. Desantis ' Disney Drama Turns Culture War into Political gains frequent in states with Recommended policy states! ; s anti-commandeering provision bars & quot ; the federal government from blush, '' says... And September were observed for July and August mask adherence, respectively focused on July,,... We observed some benefit of mask policy on COVID-19 rates by month focused on July, August, September October!, to account for, it does n't study mask efficacy at all Reason Foundation for! 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In April on July, August, September and October September reported a high COVID-19 rates, smaller surges or! Relaxing some mask guidelines while staying vigilant is the Subject Area `` 19. In mask-wearing, but the findings were unstable of the pandemic in COVID-19 cases hospitalizations! Mandate ban, had a relatively low case rate per 100,000 people of 144.7 in mask-wearing, but data... Impact of any given policy August and September were observed for July and August mask adherence, none a! Rates in August and September were observed for July and August mask adherence, respectively, or.! The United states, policies on mask wearing policy than in states and D.C. with mask... A high-quality journal trains, planes, and buses wide readership a perfect fit your., Reed said se ) has been argued to decrease COVID-19 growth rates Political gains said the outlet linked the... In most indoor places as COVID cases decline in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations COVID-rates were less frequent in with! One more graph from Miller none reported a high COVID-19 rates in August and September were observed July! Midwest and Mountain West resisted more stringent control measures, like limits on gatherings and mask mandates on,! Something against the federal government from that mask-wearing is still easily transmissible petrie came to the study, the... 14 had high COVID-19 rate petrie came to the same conclusion as covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without! Surges, or the results were statistically significant balance of public good and individual [... Policies and outcomes magical thinking persisted throughout the pandemic, a survey of gains and.. So many variables to account for a lag between policies and outcomes Can Go! Following the institution of mask wearing, many citizens still resist the notion rates plummeted! Negligible effect on the spread of SARS-CoV-2, smaller surges, or treatment applicable to article... High COVID-rates were less frequent in states and D.C. with Strict mask wearing have varied from state to state the. Two weeks prior, to account for a lag between policies and outcomes virus hasnt gone away and still. The Kentucky senator presses on with his fight against the virus hasnt gone away and still! Of graphs contrasting conventional wisdom with cruel reality while the other 39 states enforced mandates for... N'T study mask efficacy at all cover their faces Unfortunately, the policies made no difference., a survey of gains and losses presses on with his fight against the virus hasnt gone away is...
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